Global wheat markets have eased back from the recent highs as conditions in Russia have improved. Scattered showers have increased soil moisture, with further rainfall forecast.

Snow and rain in the US has also improved the outlook and prospect for US winter wheat, with condition scores showing a slight improvement last week.

With 71% of the US winter wheat crop emerged, the USDA rated 43% of the crop in good to excellent condition, up from 41% a week ago but still historically in an overall poor condition.

Corn markets have continued to fall back from speculative investment highs.

Building Covid-19 cases, slowing Chinese purchases and improving conditions in Brazil have all led to an ease in maize markets.

Long-term corn market direction will depend on the La Nina conditions in Brazil where drought fears will maintain a degree of support for corn markets.

Overall oilseed markets have also come off the recent highs. Conditions in Brazil are improving, with rainfall having arrived, and planting progress is catching up.

From an oilseed rape perspective, the additional lockdown measures being put in place across Europe and the UK will prevent a further rally as lockdown restrictions dent demand.

However, from a rapemeal perspective, prices are likely to remain elevated as the domestic supply remains tight and crush margins are eroded.

Peter Collier, CRM AgriCommodities

Rainfall finally arrived on the dry winter wheat fields of Russia and the US, easing the world market’s immediate concerns over these crops. However, uncertainty concerning their overall potential is likely to continue over winter.

In Western Europe, winter wheat drilling looks set to receive a helping hand thanks to a period of settled weather extending across the continent.

In France, planting has reached 66% which is in line with the average and up from 45% in the previous week. French farmers will be keen to maximise their winter wheat area, having endured similar issues to UK farmers last autumn.

During that time, adverse weather resulted in a 2020 crop that was 25% down on the year.

French wheat is finding increasing levels of export demand, particularly to China. In October, 524,000t of French wheat was shipped there – the largest monthly volume recorded.

In contrast, only one cargo of 6,600t was shipped to Algeria, which is traditionally the largest French export home.

The EU – including the UK – had, at the end of October, reached 6.89mt of wheat exports this season in comparison to 9.73mt this time last year. In its October report, analyst Stratégie Grains increased its EU wheat export estimate for this season by 2mt to 25mt.

This is well behind last year’s shipments which reached 35.5mt and the weekly export pace to date will need to increase by 30% for the rest of the season to avoid an increased carryover of stocks.

This week, the South China Morning Post reported that China was expected to block imports of many Australian industrial and agricultural products, and that it was likely to extend a ban on wheat.

That could well help France extend its wheat shipments to China in the coming months.

Simon Ingle, Frontier

World oilseed prices have been on the back foot recently, as southern hemisphere planting conditions improved, in turn easing market concerns.

With most US futures markets having been in highly overbought technical levels, the pullback was seen as a natural market correction and this allowed fresh buying interest to surface, leaving soybean futures around unchanged on the week.

European rapeseed values fared less well. The fresh lockdown measures introduced across the continent are seen threatening biodiesel demand again, as was witnessed during the first lockdown in spring.

Brazilian soybean farmers have been fighting overly dry planting conditions for weeks, delaying progress. But widespread rains of late have allowed the pace to pick up, with farmers reportedly able to drill 1m hectares every day.

They are now around 50% complete, bringing the pace almost in line with historically normal progress.

By contrast, in Argentina, conditions have not materially improved in the last week, and their soybean planting progress remains materially behind normal. Last year, these two countries produced 187mt soybeans, roughly 50% of world supply.

With the La Nina event likely to intensify through to December, bringing dryness to South America, 2021 production levels here are still highly uncertain. As such, oilseed markets will likely remain ‘twitchy’, into Christmas, at least.

Rupert Somerscales, ODA

There has been some business in the organic market as a delayed vessel of maize and beans has made those with imported grain sold scramble to replace supplies delayed en route.

This has pushed maize prices higher if offers are forthcoming, with some importers unwilling to make new sales. There are differences of opinions as to whether this is a temporary blip due to a late vessel or a more fundamental lack of supply.

With most organic maize coming from Russia, it would be unusual for supply to be short. Either way it highlights the over-reliance we have on imports and the strategic weakness this creates in our sector.

With the conventional market weakening and the announcement of a further lockdown, feed buyers are rather sitting on their hands and letting the current situation play out rather than take additional cover. It is unclear how demand for feed will be impacted by the lockdown.

Hopefully the dairy industry will be better positioned to cope than in March, especially as supplies will reduce going into winter.

Flour millers are certainly taking cover as they anticipate additional demand and we have made some sales of low quality milling wheat that was likely destined for the feed market which has been a fillip for some.

The uncertainty of Brexit remains a challenge. Gearing up for new processes to maintain supplies of product to Northern Ireland (NI) and the EU is taking time and as December 21 approaches, haulage capacity for long distance lorry movements to NI or the near continent becomes harder.

Farmers are reporting that drilling has progressed well with the majority well drilled up, helped by the early start.

Perceived wisdom is that organic cereals don’t want to be drilled too early to reduce disease risk and it will be interesting to see how crops fare this season given that many went in early.

Some shedding in the strong winds in August has resulted in some high volunteer numbers for some, so hopefully a prolonged winter chill will check the spring drilled invaders.

Andrew Trump, Organic Arable