What if the European Parliament election was held today?

It has been two years to the day since the 2019 European Parliament elections and, well … let’s say a few things have changed. But what has the economic and political upheaval caused by the coronavirus pandemic, Brexit and other factors done to Europe’s political landscape?

POLITICO’s Poll of Polls offers the only daily updated seat estimate for the European Parliament, combining national polling from all 27 member states and projecting how the seat distribution in the hemicycle would look if seats across the EU were contested today.

The biggest shift is not due to voters changing their minds, but the result of Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party having left the largest group in the Parliament — the center-right European People’s Party. The EPP would remain the largest group in this hypothetical election scenario, but its lead over the Socialists & Democrats group is currently smaller than it has been at any point since the previous election. The two main groups combined would be at another historic low, according to our projection, if the election were held today.

Beyond the two main political groups, there are other shifts in the fortunes of smaller parties. A number of new groups would enter the Parliament for the first time, including the new splinter party in Slovakia, HLAS – Social Democracy, which would be likely to join S&D, giving them another four seats.

Polling suggests that the Greens — although riding a wave of success in Germany — would not be able to make significant gains in other countries. In the European Parliament 2019 election, they won 20 percent of the vote in Germany, giving them the second highest seat tally, so they have little room for improvement. The European Left-Nordic Green Left group would benefit from Sinn Féin’s increased popularity in Ireland by picking up more seats. Meanwhile, the liberal Renew Europe group would easily reclaim third place behind the EPP and S&D.